Former President Donald Trump has faced a series of polling setbacks as Vice President Kamala Harris continues to gain momentum ahead of November’s 2024 election. Across six national polls released on Tuesday and Wednesday, Harris leads Trump in four, while Trump holds a slight edge in two.
In the latest polls, Harris leads Trump by 4 percentage points in a Civiqs survey, 3 points in a Leger survey, 2 points in a YouGov survey, and 1 point in an Ipsos survey. Trump, however, has a 2-point advantage in a McLaughlin poll and a 2.6-point lead in an ActiVote poll.
These results indicate that the Democratic strategy, following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, is proving effective. The 2024 race has tightened considerably with Harris as the Democratic candidate compared to when Biden was leading the ticket. The Cook Political Report’s latest national average, released Wednesday, shows Trump ahead by 1.3 points but also notes that Harris has halved Trump’s lead from 2.7 points when Biden was the contender.
The Leger poll, which gives Harris a 3-point advantage over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, shows her with her largest margin yet when including other candidates. Harris leads Trump by 7 points, securing 48 percent support to his 41 percent, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attracting 5 percent. This represents a notable decline in voters supporting third-party candidates, from 12 percent in June to 5 percent in July. Conducted between July 26 and July 28 among 1,002 respondents, the Leger poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Civiqs poll, where Harris leads Trump by 4 points, highlights her strong support among voters aged 18 to 49, while Trump performs better among those aged 50 and older. Harris also has a higher favorability rating than both Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, with 43 percent viewing Harris favorably compared to 42 percent for Trump and 34 percent for Vance.
The survey also reveals that a majority of Democrats are pleased with Biden’s decision to exit the race, and overall, half of Americans believe Harris has a better chance of defeating Trump. However, more voters, 45 percent, still predict a Trump victory compared to 42 percent who expect Harris to win. The Civiqs poll was conducted between July 27 and July 30 among 1,123 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The YouGov survey marks the first time since November that a Democratic candidate has led Trump by more than one point. In the previous survey before Harris replaced Biden, Trump led by 2 points. The latest poll shows Harris boosting Democratic support by 4 points, holding a 46 percent to 44 percent advantage over Trump. Conducted between July 27 and July 30 among 1,605 adults, the YouGov poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
While the Ipsos poll shows Harris with a 1-point lead, this is a slight dip from her 2-point lead last week. Nevertheless, Harris has improved her favorability rating from 40 percent on July 2 to 46 percent by the end of the month. This poll was conducted between July 26 and July 28 among 1,025 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
These polling results suggest a competitive and dynamic race ahead, with Harris gaining ground as the election approaches.